By the time you read this article, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Devil Rays will have started the 2004 season with a 5 a.m. start in Japan. Next week all of the teams in the major leagues will leave their respective spring training homes in Arizona or Florida and head to their summer homes. All of these teams look at the Marlins from last year and the Angels from the year before and realize that every team has a shot at playing in October, no matter where they play or what market they are in. Even the Detroit Tigers, who narrowly avoided being the worst team in baseball history last season, have a legitimate-albeit small-shot at playing in October. So why would I pick the team that starts the earliest to be playing the latest? Why would I pick the highest payroll in baseball to capture their 27th World Series crown. Well, because they are the Yankees, and although there are many reasons why they will win the World Series, here are seven of them:
One: Repeat: they are the Yankees. Let's not forget that. This team has won the American League pennant six out of the last eight years. The only other team to actually make the playoffs six times in the past eight years was Atlanta. Although they've been fallible since this amazing run began under Joe Torre in 1996, they've never actually lost a clinching game at home. Teams are intimidated to play them. And something about that history always catches up with other teams, especially the Red Sox. You don't think Babe Ruth a la Angels in the Outfield, was pushing Aaron Boone's home-run? Sure he was. There may be better looking and more modern ballparks, but there's nothing like Yankee Stadium in October.
Two: The number two reason ins No. 2 on the Yankees, Derek Jeter. No matter how many unfamiliar faces come to the Yankees, "Captain Derek" will always be there. He's so important to this team that when Alex Rodriguez, arguably the best shortstop to ever play the game, was traded to the Yankees, A-Rod had to move so Jeter could continue his throne at shortstop. Joe Torre is the stabling force in the clubhouse, but Jeter is the stabling force on the field.
Certain sportswriters complain that he doesn't put up the numbers or field the position the way they deem a great player does. But I would not take anyone else in the clutch. Jeter gets big hits when it counts, and when defense matters, he comes through with some spectacular plays. And Jeter does the little things like bunt, move the runner and the hit-and-run that make Jeter an integral part to the Yankees in October.
Three: This team can mash. Period. It's plain and simple-Lofton, Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield, Posada, Bernie and Matsui are the best top eight of any lineup in baseball. Although they'll begin the season without Bernie Williams, who is recovering from an emergency appendectomy, the Yankees will have him back soon. Some people are worried that Enrique Wilson is going to be a weak spot in this lineup. Maybe they'll worry about his .474 average this spring. But they shouldn't be too worried with Ruben Sierra on the bench. This team should challenge the record for runs scored.
Four: The starting pitching will be better than people think. No one doubts the ability of Mussina to continue his success in the Bronx. Javier Vazquez is a horse and should make an easy transition from the relative obscurity of Montreal. Kevin Brown is injury prone, but when he's healthy, this guy is a competitor like Roger Clemens. Remember, Brown took Florida in 1997 and San Diego in 1998 to the World Series on his back. Jose Contreras struck out eight in his last outing and scouts have been raving about his ability to control his four pitches. And the fifth starter issue is a non-issue. With the time the Yankees get between Japan and some days off in April, they will only need a fifth starter one to two times. Either Jorge DePaula or Donovan Osbourne can take over until Jon Lieber comes back. Remember, Lieber won 21 games for the Cubs a couple of years ago. So don't count him out either. Sure they lost a lot of pitching in the off-season, but they more than compensated for it.
Five: While there may be some question marks in the starting staff, the bullpen is as good as it has ever been. No matter what anyone wants me to believe, I still think Mariano Rivera is one of the top three closers in the game, and an eventual Hall-of-Famer. This year, he actually has guys setting him up, so he doesn't have to work two innings. Tom Gordon has not let up a run the entire spring, while striking out 16. Paul Quantrill will also be a huge righty out of the bullpen, as he can get out both righties and lefties. Gabe White and Felix Heredia make up the left side of the bullpen. And, when he gets healthy, Steve Karsay will make this bullpen one of the most complete groups ever.
Six: Who is going to beat them? Sure, every team in their division has improved, but the Yankees still have an advantage on all of those teams. I wouldn't be surprised to see them face the Red Sox again in the ALCS. But do you think the result will be any different? I'm going to have to give two Cowboys down to that one. Sure, the Cubs or the Astros are going to be formidable opponents in the World Series. But the Cubs are cursed and half of the Astros pitching staff are Yankees at heart.
Seven: They can't go another year without winning the World Series. It seems like ages ago when they last won. Actually, it was 2000 against the Mets. But since Bernie Williams caught the fly ball off the bat of Mike Piazza to end it, the face of the Yankees has changed so dramatically, I don't even think they recognize themselves. There are only four holdovers from that 2000 team-Williams, Jeter, Posada, and Rivera. These players are hungry and ready to win it all. And if they don't, George Steinbrenner is not going to sit by idly and watch.
So once one thinks it over, it's obvious: the World Series trophy is returning to the Bronx.