The Middle East remains a focal point of global politics as ongoing Israeli-Hamas warfare, Iran’s economic and political turmoil, the hardships faced by Syrian refugees in Turkey and the erosion of democracy in Israel have further destabilized the region’s already delicate balance. On Thursday, Sept. 12, the Crown Center for Middle East Studies hosted a panel of experts to discuss the region’s challenges and how these may intersect with the upcoming United States elections. Moderated by Prof. Eva Bellin (POL), the panel featured Ghaith al-Omari, Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch, Hadi Kahalzadeh, and Nihal Kayali.

Ghaith al-Omari is a Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, former executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine, and former  advisor to the negotiating team during the 1999–2001 Oslo Accords. He also held various positions within the Palestinian Authority and served as an advisor to former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch, an associate professor at Suffolk University and former senior fellow at the Crown Center that specializes in international relations, transitional justice and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hadi Kahalzadeh, a junior research fellow at the Crown Center and scholar in Global Development and Sustainability at the University, examines Iran’s political economy and social welfare, focusing on the impact of economic sanctions. Nihal Kayali, also a junior research fellow at the Crown Center, investigates the role of nonstate service providers for Syrian refugees in Turkey, exploring how these configurations adapt to state policies and geopolitical challenges.

Ghaith al-Omari described the Israel-Hamas conflict as having a “huge human toll” and provided a critical perspective by highlighting the widespread nature of suffering. He pointed out the human instinct to claim that one’s own community has a “monopoly on suffering,” but stressed that pain and hardship are widespread and not confined to any single group. He emphasized the importance of acknowledging all aspects of the conflict, including the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, the suffering of the hostages and their families, and the devastating loss of life in Gaza. He argued that we must acknowledge this devastation both from a moral perspective as well as a political perspective and that “policy needs to be rooted in a human perspective.”

While al-Omari acknowledged the right of any nation to defend itself following a terror attack like Oct. 7, drawing comparisons with the U.S.’ military action in the post-9/11 era, he noted that even if a war is deemed just, the means of conducting it may not be. He said that there have been “clear violations of the rules of war” (a widespread and hotly debated notion still being investigated by bodies like the International Criminal Court, though affirmed by the United Nations) by Israel in its current war in Gaza and stressed the importance of planning a future exit strategy. 

“Starting a war is much easier than ending a war,” Al-Omari noted, adding that ultimately, “the war is going to be over…and we have to find a path out of that.” Both Palestinians and Israelis will remain in the region long after the war ends, he emphasized, and therefore it is necessary to work towards a sustainable solution for lasting peace. 

Al-Omari also observed that despite widespread discourse on preventing a broader regional war, he has never seen so many simultaneous open fronts in the Middle East. He points to ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza, remarking, “For heaven’s sake, the Jordanians are bombing Syria, and the Iranians are trying to invade Jordan,” referring to May 2023 Jordanian airstrikes in Syria and a June 2024 report on Iran doing “everything they can to destabilize Jordan” during the Israel-Hamas war. He called for U.S. involvement in developing exit strategies, potentially in collaboration with Saudi Arabia, and emphasized the importance of rebuilding the Palestinian Authority, addressing intra-Arab tensions, and considering Iran’s critical role in the region, including concerns related to sanctions on Iran and its nuclear capabilities.

Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch discussed the erosion of democracy in Israel, explaining that although the 2023 proposed judicial reforms garnered worldwide attention, the democratic “backsliding” in Israeli politics started roughly a decade ago. Hirsch categorized this democratic backsliding into three areas: leadership, institutional changes, and shifts in citizens’ values. 

Hirsch highlighted significant institutional changes, noting the impact of laws like the Nakba Law and the 2018 Nation-State Law. The Nakba Law restricts state funding to institutions that commemorate Israel’s establishment as a day of mourning or that question Israel’s identity as a Jewish state, and thus has raised concerns about freedom of speech. Amidst other controversial details, the Nation-State Law enshrines, in Israeli law, the state of Israel as “the nation-state of the Jewish people” and limits the “right of national self-determination in the State of Israel” as “unique to the Jewish people.” The new law has been criticized for undermining Israel’s self-defined status as a “Jewish and democratic state.” The law’s lack of an equality clause for Palestinian and Arab-Israelis and its provisions favoring land allocation for Jewish citizens have sparked both domestic and international backlash, with critics arguing that it exacerbates tensions and undermines democratic principles. 

In discussing the current war’s impact on this erosion, Hirsch noted that while the conflict might have temporarily halted internal democratic erosion by ushering in a unity government, it has also intensified populist and nationalist rhetoric, leading to long-term societal shifts, pointing to the temporary shutting down of local operations of the Qatari news network Al Jazeera this past May as an example. This move, widely criticized as anti-democratic, reflects a troubling trend towards increased radicalization and a strengthening of police forces in Israel.

Hadi Kahalzadeh provided a comprehensive overview of Iran's multifaceted crises. First, the country faces severe economic issues, with high inflation, mounting debt to the Central Bank, and a poverty rate of 21.90% as of 2022. Second, there is widespread public dissatisfaction, with 92% of Iranians unhappy with their situation and a drastic decline in election turnout. Third, according to Kahalzadeh, leadership under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is 85, has been widely criticized for its ineffectiveness in addressing the country’s problems, leading to a lack of optimism for future changes. Finally, Kahalzadeh discussed the impact of international sanctions, noting that while recent U.S. sanctions target Iran’s military ties with Russia and its nuclear program, they have not significantly altered Iran’s regional influence or nuclear ambitions. Kahalzadeh argues that Iran must engage with the West for long-term solutions, as reliance on Russia and China provides only short-term relief.

Nihal Kayali discussed the complex situation of Syrian refugees in Turkey, highlighting that the country hosts one of the largest refugee populations globally, with around 3 million registered Syrian refugees and many more unregistered. The refugee crisis, which began in 2011, gained international attention in 2015/2016 when many Syrians sought refuge in Europe. In response, the European Union struck a deal with Turkey, financially supporting the country to manage the influx of refugees.

Kayali noted two main strands of difficulty: the immediate humanitarian crisis exacerbated by a catastrophic earthquake near the border with Northern Syria in Feb. 2023, which devastated areas where many refugees live and the broader economic and social challenges facing Turkey. The country's economic downturn has led to rising costs of living and increasing xenophobia, with Syrians often becoming scapegoats for societal problems. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who initially adopted an open-door policy for refugees as part of his vision to position Turkey as a humanitarian leader and a Sunni-Muslim arbiter, used this stance to secure EU funds to help the refugees and bolster his political position. However, Kayali pointed out that soon after securing these agreements, Erdoğan began restricting refugee protections, tightening border controls, and shifting his focus back to his political agendas. 

All four speakers expressed limited optimism about the impact of U.S. elections on their respective fields, suggesting that while political changes in the U.S. might affect smaller details or nuances, they are unlikely to significantly alter the broader dynamics of their areas of expertise. While acknowledging the gravity and difficult aspects of the issues and conflicts discussed, the atmosphere remained warm, with an engaging Q&A session and a shared Middle Eastern dinner contributing to a sense of camaraderie.